Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Living through the COVID-19 pandemic and opportunities for a new and better future

Living through the COVID-19 pandemic 



The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disruption for life as we know it.  In no particular order:

Economies have slowed drastically due to restrictions on many businesses operating.

Many people have lost their jobs and are now unemployed.  Unemployment is reaching levels not seen since the 1930 depression.

Many shops cannot pay rents as they have no income while they are shut down.

Many housing tenants cannot pay rent as they have no income.

Governments have provided stimulatory spending including providing wage replacements to those who have been stood down by companies due to lack of work.  Some groups of people are not getting payments, including international students and casual workers who have been employed with a company for less than a year.

Social distancing to reduce the spread of infection has halted many social conventions including hugs, kisses and handshakes.

Social distancing has also been introduced in supermarkets and retail shops that remain open.

Panic buying has seen supplies of toilet paper and many food supplies depleted.

Many school and all university students are being schooled from home via the Internet.

People are walking and cycling in local parks either alone, with another person or with a family group from the same household.


People are heeding government advice to stay at home and avoid unnecessary travel.  The roads are very quiet.

Police are fining some people who break social distancing and other regulations imposed under a state of emergency.

Many people are working from home via the Internet.

The arts and music industries have ground to a halt with all public performances and exhibitions closed.

Sports are stopped and many sporting clubs and organisations are suffering cash flow problems. Some say they won't survive.

The stock market has suffered major losses with share prices falling [link]

Countries have closed their borders to most travel.

People on cruise ships have become marooned when no country will allow them to berth due to concerns about infection risk.

Air pollution has dropped along with automobile and industry emissions.

Families are spending time together with parents and children all at home during lockdowns.

People are cooking more - meals, bread, pastries, cakes etc.

Hand washing has become routine, along with disinfectant hand cleaner in some shops.

A National Cabinet has been formed to expedite decision making and align federal and state policies and actions for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Union leaders are talking to federal government ministers to develop appropriate support measures for companies and employees.

Companies with large debts and/or "just in time" manufacturing/retail models have been hit hard by the lockdowns imposed by governments.  Many, such as Virgin Australia, are in big trouble.  Some will fail.

Opportunities for a new and better future

Individuals, societies and governments can change how things are done when they want or need to.

We can pay a universal basic income to people who are unemployed.

Governments can build infrastructure that generates employment and benefits people including:
  • High quality bike paths, free from traffic
  • High speed rail links between cities
  • More public transport to give people the option for convenient and sustainable travel


Provide a universal public health system that delivers health services for all citizens and provides economies of scale.

Provide more government funding for research and development into various sectors including:
  • Public health and disease prevention
  • Renewable energy and energy storage solutions
  • Rebuilding centralised electricity grids to support micro-grids, distributed storage and distribution of renewable energy
Impose a travel tax on all car and truck travel.
  • Car users and trucks don't directly pay for roads so many people feel they are free to use.  However, increased road usage creates more demands for roads, creating a vicious cycle.

Support work from home as an ongoing arrangement
  • Less travel would free up a lot of time for many people
  • People could work from home, possibly on a roster system, for 1 to 5 days per week
Price air travel appropriately.
  • Excessive air travel is a luxury the planet cannot afford.  It should be priced to cover greenhouse gas emissions, leading to reductions in non-essential trips.
  • Local holidays are a more sustainable option
Protect forests and plant trees
  • Forest provide natural resources and are "services" such as producing water and drawing down CO2.  They also provide habitat for animals and plants and support biodiversity
  • Cease logging of native forests  
  • Plant trees on degraded farm land and public land to generate employment and increase the world's forest cover.

Transition to renewable energy
  • Develop are roadmap to transition to 100% renewable energy by 2030 and transition off fossil fuels including oil, gas and coal.
  • Generate employment in manufacturing and services for renewable energy


Make all elected MPs part of government
  • Reform politics and government so that all elected MPs have a role to play
  • Ditch political parties and "the opposition"

Feel free to add any suggestions in the comments.

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Keeping schools open during COVID-19 pandemic - pros and cons

There are conflicting opinions in in Australia about whether students should continue to attend schools or do "schooling from home" until the risk of infection from COVID-19 is judged to be acceptable.

In Victoria, Australia, Premier Daniel Andrews has specified that schools remain open for parents that need them (e.g. emergency service workers). For others "if you can learn from home, you must learn from home".

Prime Minister Scott Morrison continues to say that children should be attending schools.

Advantages of children attending schools:
  • less disruption to education
  • reduced impact on parents working from home
  • emergency services workers and other parents can continue to work rather than stay at home to look after their children. 
Disadvantages of children attending schools:
  • infection risk for students
  • COVID19 infection asymptomatic in many children
  • infection risk for teachers, admin staff and cleaners
  • community infection spread via children & staff
  • no routine testing is being done (e.g. temperature testing)
  • some schools have been closed (re-actively) when teacher(s) have tested positive.
  • in a NSW childcare centre 7 daycare workers, 6 kids, and another 13 parents or close family members have been infected.
The Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza specifies both proactive and reactive school closures.  In Australia, states are responsible for education. 

Schools are open in Victoria for parents that need them #COVID19 so its difficult to understand why Scott Morrison is calling for "schools to stay open"

See also




Friday, April 03, 2020

COVID-19 and novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 information and links

Some information I have collected about COVID-19 follows.


Terminology

  • COVIDー19 is a disease (now pandemic), an illness caused by a coronavirus
  • SARSーCoVー2 is a novel coronavirus (type of virus) that causes COVID-19
  • Isolation is for sick people with symptoms
  • Quarantine is for people who are at risk of infection.

Australian government advice and information


COVID-19 disease

  • COVIDー19 is is not the flu, it is 3-4 times more contagious and has much higher mortality rate that is likely to be between 0.5% to 6%. 
  • A vaccine could be 12-18 months away 
  • Among the over 3,700 passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise liner who tested positive for COVID-19, more than 46% were not showing symptoms at the time they were tested.
  • Asymptomatic infection is common in children, occurring in 10-30% of cases.

Current Advice in Australia as at 4 April 2020

  • If you can stay home, you must stay home.
  • Non-essential travel is restricted across Australia
  • All recreational activities beyond basic exercise are not allowed.  This includes fishing, hunting, boating, camping and golf.

Basic protective measures

  • Wash your hands frequently - Regularly and thoroughly clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water.
  • Maintain social distancing - maintain at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing. When self isolating people should maintain social distancing from other family members within households.
  • Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth - hands touch many surfaces and can pick up viruses. Once contaminated, hands can transfer the virus to your eyes, nose or mouth. From there, the virus can enter your body and can make you sick.
  • Practice respiratory hygiene - make sure you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. This means covering your mouth and nose with your bent elbow or tissue when you cough or sneeze. Then dispose of the used tissue immediately.
  • Seek medical care early if you have fever, cough and difficulty breathing - If you have a fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical attention and call in advance. Follow the directions of your local health authority.

Some questions about COVID-19

Should schools be kept open during the COVID-19 pandemic?

Does everyone who recovers from infection develop immunity?  There are reports of some people developing the disease again after recovering.

Will a vaccine for COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 ) be developed?  The common cold is also a coronavirus, there is no vaccine for it.  There is no vaccine for SARS (SARS-CoV virus) or MERS ( MERS-CoV) [link]

Why is COVID-19 so infectious?
  • Infected people can spread the virus while they show no symptoms
  • The virus can be spread on tiny droplets from coughing.
  • The virus can be spread by touching contaminated surfaces then touching your eyes, nose or mouth.

How long can COVID-19 persist on surfaces? Reports indicate that the time it survives depends on the type of surface. Under experimental conditions the virus remained viable:
  • in air - for  three hours
  • on copper surface for four hours
  • on cardboard surface after 24 hours.
  • on stainless steel and plastic surfaces - up to 72 hours
Why do up to half of people infected by COVID-19 show no symptoms? (asymptomatic)

Why is COVID-19 fatal for some people? 
  • The virus has caused severe respiratory disease in about 20 per cent of patients and killed more than 3 per cent of confirmed cases [link].
  • Older people, whose immune defences have declined with age are more susceptible
  • People with underlying health conditions (comorbidities) including hypertension, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes and cancer are much more vulnerable [link]
  • Some infected healthy people have an immune overreaction, known as a 'cytokine storm', that can cause acute respiratory distress, which means less oxygen reaches the bloodstream - depriving organs of the oxygen they need.
What is the incubation period for COVID-19?
  • The median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection [link]
  • People may be infectious when they display no symptoms - this is under investigation.
Is COVID-19 like AIDS?
  • Researchers in China and the US have found that the virus that causes Covid-19 can destroy the T cells that are supposed to protect the body from harmful invaders
  • One doctor said concern is growing in medical circles that effect could be similar to HIV [link]

Links